Peak Oil Theory

Mon, 2006-05-29 17:52

The Hubbert peak theory, also known as "peak oil", concerns the long-term rate of extraction and depletion in conventional petroleum and other fossil fuels. It is named after American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert, who created a model of known oil reserves, and proposed, in a paper he presented to the American Petroleum Institute in 1956, that oil production would peak in the continental United States between 1965 and 1970, and worldwide in 2000.

United States oil production peaked in 1971. The peak of world oilfield discoveries occurred in 1962. Some estimates for the date of worldwide peak in oil production, made by Hubbert and others, have already passed. This has led to criticism of the theory's method and predictions. Supporters of peak theory suggest Hubbert's model did not account for the 1973 and 1979 OPEC oil shocks, which effectively reduced demand, thus delaying a world peak.

The theory is subject to continued discussion and controversy. Some oil industry executives, economists, and analysts doubt that Hubbert's peak theory applies on a global scale. However, Chevron has launched the Will You Join Us? greenwashing campaign, seeking to alert the public to the possibility of petroleum depletion and encourage discussion. The campaign's website notes findings from the International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2004: "Fossil fuels currently supply most of the world’s energy, and are expected to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. While supplies are currently abundant, they won’t last forever. Oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries, ..."

Opinions on Hubbert's peak range from prediction that the market economy will produce a solution, to predictions of doomsday scenarios of a global economy unable to meet its energy needs.

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