Hubbert, a geophysicist, created a mathematical model of oil extraction which predicted that the cumulative amount of oil extracted over time would follow a logistic curve, which follows a bell-shaped pattern now known as the Hubbert curve. The theory implies that the predicted rate of oil extraction at any given time would be given by the derivative of the logistic curve at that time.

When oil reserves are discovered, production is initially small, because all the required infrastructure has not been installed. As wells are drilled and more efficient facilities are installed, oil production increases. At some point, a peak output is reached that can not be exceeded, even with improved technology or additional drilling. After the peak, oil production slowly but increasingly tapers off. After the peak, but before an oil field is empty, another significant point is reached when it takes more energy to recover, transport, and process a barrel of oil than the amount of energy contained in that barrel. At that point, it is no longer worthwhile to extract petroleum for energy - it becomes a resource sink. According to Hubbert's model, oil reserves in the United States would be exhausted before the end of the 21st century.

Given past oil production data, and barring extraneous factors such as lack of demand, the model predicts the date of peak oil production output for an oil field, multiple oil fields, or an entire region. Hubbert's original formulations applied to a "theoretical, unconstrained province," and that the model must be adjusted if significant artificial impedances, such as political or environmental regulations, are in effect.

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