By: Matthew Simmons, Simmons International

55 slides, including:

Questions We Should Have Asked:

• Could end to sustainablie energy supply growth be nearing?
• How soon could 'peak oil and gas' arrive?
• How long would peak stay at a plateau?
• How fast could supply then decline?
• Is peak oil more likely than peak natural gas?

Our Energy Gauges Are Broken

• Current energy data (oil, NG and electricity) is inconsisten, misleading and often useless
• 95% of world's proven oil and gas reserves are 'un-audited'
• Demand estimates take years to veriy.
• Petroleum stocks are mostly computerized guesses
• Field-by-field production reports (excluding North Sea) virtually non-existent

World Should Assume We Are At Peak For Oil AND Gas

• Optimists have no meaningful facts to bolster enthusiasm
• Peaking of usable oil and gas is either
  Approaching front door
  Knocking at the world's door
  Now inside the house
  1. Denial has crated an awful global crisis
  2. Denying peaking of modern energy creates the ultimate crisis

What "Twilight In The Desert" Conludes:

• 5 super giant fields are all mature
• 3 giant fields are also mature
• Water incursion is growing.
• Corrosion problems are serious
• Significant production growth is risky strategy
• Production conservation is safest production policy.
• Exploration finds were meek.

March 2006: I Revist The SPE Library [SPE= Society of Petroleum Engineers]

• Reading 40-60 SPE papers filed after "Twilight" was published provided excellent update on real time issues
• The exercise underscroed the importance of SPE papers and their value
• It further underscored preposterous charge that these papers are 'junk science.' (My critics' contention

Make Sure 'Solutions' Do Not Deepen the Energy Hole

• Many suggested alternative energy solutions may worsen the crisis
• Any source of useable energy with energy input close to same energy output will not work
• Many solutions do not scale
• Some only provide intermittent electricity
• Understanding energy input/output is crucial
• Creating an honest energy dialogue is urgent

Original Article: Tight Oil Supplies (big PDF)

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